The internal situation in Pakistan has probably caused plenty of sleepless nights in various parts of the world. Imagine a country where the central government supposedly has control over its nuclear arsenal but is unable to extend its authority over large parts of its own territory. Although the Defense Department says it isn't concerned about the Pakistani nukes, its answers strike me as opaquely constructed: "I don’t see any indication right now that security of those weapons is in jeopardy," is the way Admiral Mike Mullen, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, put it. Upon reading that, I couldn't help thinking that, read differently, the security of the weapons might be in jeopardy, we just haven't seen any indication yet.
And then there's the answer by Sec. of Defense, Robert Gates, on the question of American knowledge about Pakistan's weapons and how and where they're stored:
Q: Are there gaps in the U.S. government's knowledge about the way that system works?
Sec. Gates: I don't know the answer to that.
I only hope he means that in a personal, technical way rather than a general comment on the state of American knowledge about this issue.
One of the reasons for concern (beyond the obvious) was the recent NY Times article which revealed that the US does not know where the weapons are located. And if this isn't bad enough, we need to keep in mind our imperfect knowledge about elements within Pakistan's military and intelligence, given "the considerable bloc of radical Islamist Taliban (if not al-Qaida) sympathizers within the Pakistani military and its notorious intelligence service, the ISI (which in fact helped create al-Qaida)."
In short, imperfect knowledge breeds uncertainty and insecurity. And that is a prescription for unpredictability. This isn't a pleasant thought and, indeed, becomes less pleasant with each passing day when we consider what we know of Iran's intentions--equally opaque, imperfect and uncertain.
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